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Funding: This research was funded by the Department of Political Science at University of Vienna, Austria and the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society, USA, in association with Climate Social Science Network. ; Peer reviewed ; Publisher PDF

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the European Union (EU281). The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarize GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs), with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for the EU28 provide consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC Guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. The largest inconsistencies between EU28 estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity, referred to here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (tiers) used for calculating emissions and removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3662371 (Petrescu et al., 2020). ; publishedVersion

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the European Union (EU28 1 ). The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarize GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs), with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for the EU28 provide consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC Guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. The largest inconsistencies between EU28 estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity, referred to here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (tiers) used for calculating emissions and removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3662371 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, including estimates of uncertainties, to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in the European Union (EU281). The data integrate recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models and summarize GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs), with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Whenever available, we present uncertainties, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for the EU28 provide consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC Guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods needs to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. The largest inconsistencies between EU28 estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity, referred to here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (tiers) used for calculating emissions and removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3662371 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, along with estimates of their inherent uncertainties, in order to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in Europe. The data integrates recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, covering the European Union (EU28) and summarizes GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016, of relevance for UNFCCC. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGI) with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Particular effort is devoted to the estimation of uncertainty, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for EU28 provides consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods will need to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. At EU28 level, the largest inconsistencies between estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity which result in emissions or removals taking place during a given period of time (IPCC 2006) referred here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (Tiers) used for calculating emissions/removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualised at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3460311 , Petrescu et al., 2019.

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

International audience ; In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO 2 and top emitters of CH 4 and N 2 O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO 2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH 4 , we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH 4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH 4 emission ...

In support of the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement on climate change, this study presents a comprehensive framework to process the results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions in order to make their net ecosystem exchange (NEE) carbon dioxide (CO2) flux suitable for evaluating national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) submitted by countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). From inversions we also deduced anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions regrouped into fossil and agriculture and waste emissions, as well as anthropogenic nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. To compare inversion results with national reports, we compiled a new global harmonized database of emissions and removals from periodical UNFCCC inventories by Annex I countries, and from sporadic and less detailed emissions reports by non-Annex I countries, given by national communications and biennial update reports. No gap filling was applied. The method to reconcile inversions with inventories is applied to selected large countries covering ∼90 % of the global land carbon uptake for CO2 and top emitters of CH4 and N2O. Our method uses results from an ensemble of global inversions produced by the Global Carbon Project for the three greenhouse gases, with ancillary data. We examine the role of CO2 fluxes caused by lateral transfer processes from rivers and from trade in crop and wood products and the role of carbon uptake in unmanaged lands, both not accounted for by NGHGIs. Here we show that, despite a large spread across the inversions, the median of available inversion models points to a larger terrestrial carbon sink than inventories over temperate countries or groups of countries of the Northern Hemisphere like Russia, Canada and the European Union. For CH4, we find good consistency between the inversions assimilating only data from the global in situ network and those using satellite CH4 retrievals and a tendency for inversions to diagnose higher CH4 emission estimates than reported by NGHGIs. In ...

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2017. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported to the UN climate convention UNFCCC secretariat in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGIs the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states (MSs) following the recommendations of the IPCC Guidelines. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model-specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g., anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011-2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr-1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr-1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr-1. The estimates of TD total inversions give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher-resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Coarser-resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4 yr-1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr-1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions, and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGIs and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr-1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011-2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr-1, respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr-1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr-1, respectively. The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at the EU+UK scale and at the national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at. (Petrescu et al., 2020b).